Glossary

Plus/minus. The point differential when a player is on the court. A +5 means the team outscored opponents by 5 while that player was playing.

The first hard cap threshold above the luxury tax. Teams above this line face stricter roster-building restrictions.

The second and highest hard cap threshold. Teams above this line face the most severe roster-building restrictions in the NBA.

Three-point percentage. Made three-pointers divided by attempted three-pointers.

Three-Point Attempt Rate. Percentage of field goal attempts that are three-pointers.

A three-pointer from anywhere along the arc above the corners, at the full 23'9" distance. Includes wing and top-of-the-key threes.

Adjusted Interior Impact. A legacy Metric Hoops interior defense metric that blended block rate with defensive context.

Adjusted Perimeter Impact. A legacy Metric Hoops perimeter defense metric that blended steal rate with defensive context.

Assists per game. A pass that directly leads to a made basket.

Assist-to-turnover ratio. How many assists a player creates for every turnover they commit. Higher is better for ball handlers.

Assist Percentage. Percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while on the floor.

A shot attempted from beyond half court — typically an end-of-quarter heave.

An exception letting teams exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own players who have been with them for three seasons. Named after Larry Bird.

Blocks per game. Times a defender deflects a shot attempt.

Block Percentage. Percentage of opponent two-point attempts blocked by that player while on the floor.

Times a player physically seals an opponent away from the basket to secure rebounding position, whether or not they grab the rebound themselves.

Box Plus/Minus. Estimates how many points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league-average player, based purely on box score stats.

An agreement where a player gives back part of their remaining salary in exchange for being released, becoming a free agent. The remaining money counts as dead cap.

A contract's starting salary expressed as a percentage of the salary cap in the year it was signed. Used to compare contract sizes across different eras.

The difference between a team's current payroll and the salary cap. Teams with cap space can sign free agents to standard contracts.

Times a defender establishes legal position and absorbs contact from an offensive player, forcing an offensive foul.

Clutch time. The final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime with the score within 5 points. Clutch stats measure how players perform in these high-leverage moments.

How strongly the model favors its predicted winner. Higher confidence means the model sees a more lopsided matchup — not a guarantee of the outcome.

The share of a player's own shot attempts that were contested by a defender. A high rate means tougher, more defended looks.

Shot attempts where a defender closes out with a hand up within arm's reach of the shooter.

A three-pointer from either corner, where the line is closest to the basket (22 feet vs. 23'9" elsewhere). The most efficient three-point shot.

A minor injury being evaluated daily. The player could return at any time.

Salary that counts against a team's cap even though the player is no longer on the roster, typically from a buyout or trade.

Times a defender gets a hand on the ball during a non-shot attempt — tipping passes or poking at dribbles. A leading indicator of defensive activity.

Did Not Play. A player who was on the roster but logged zero minutes — due to a coach's decision, injury, or rest.

Reaching double digits (10+) in two statistical categories in a single game — most commonly points and rebounds, or points and assists.

Unlikely to play — roughly a 25% or lower chance of suiting up.

Defensive rebounds per game. Gaining possession after a missed shot by the opposing team.

Defensive Rebound Percentage. Percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while on the floor.

Defensive Rating. Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better.

Defensive Win Shares. The portion of Win Shares attributed to defensive contributions.

Effective Field Goal Percentage. Adjusts FG% to account for the extra value of three-pointers.

Points scored on fast break possessions — typically transition baskets after a turnover or defensive rebound.

How much each input (rest days, net rating, injuries, etc.) contributes to the model's predictions. Larger values mean the model leans on that signal more.

Field goal percentage. Made field goals divided by attempted field goals.

The four stats that most determine winning, per Dean Oliver: shooting (eFG%), turnovers (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throws (FT rate).

Free throw percentage. Made free throws divided by attempted free throws.

Free Throw Rate. Free throw attempts relative to field goal attempts. Measures how often a player gets to the line.

Availability will be decided shortly before tip-off, often after pre-game warmups.

Games played.

Games started in the starting lineup.

Times a player gains possession of a ball that neither team controls — diving on the floor, winning 50/50 balls.

The NBA Draft Lottery. The 14 teams that miss the playoffs enter a weighted drawing for the top draft picks — worse records get better odds.

A financial penalty applied to teams whose payroll exceeds the tax threshold. Teams pay a dollar amount for every dollar over the line.

The largest contract a team can offer a player. The maximum value is a percentage of the salary cap based on years of experience.

Two-point shots outside the paint but inside the three-point line. The least efficient shot zone league-wide, though skilled shot-makers still thrive here.

Average minutes played per game.

Mid-Level Exception. An exception allowing teams over the salary cap to sign a player to a contract around the league's mid-level salary.

Degradation in prediction accuracy over time as the league changes — rosters turn over, play styles evolve. Monitored so the model can be retrained before accuracy slips.

Margin of Victory. Average point differential per game.

The in-season tournament. Group-stage games count toward the regular season standings; the championship final does not.

Net Rating. Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating. Shows overall team or player impact on point differential.

The difference in team performance (usually net rating) when a player is on the court versus off it. A large positive on/off suggests strong two-way impact.

Opponent points per game. Average points allowed per game.

Offensive rebounds per game. Gaining possession after a missed shot by your own team.

Offensive Rebound Percentage. Percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while on the floor.

Offensive Rating. Points scored per 100 possessions. Higher is better.

Ruled out — will not play in the upcoming game.

Will not return this season, typically due to major injury or surgery.

Offensive Win Shares. The portion of Win Shares attributed to offensive contributions.

Pace. Estimated number of possessions per 48 minutes. High-pace teams play faster with more possessions.

Shots taken in the lane but outside the restricted area — floaters, short hooks, and push shots. Harder than rim attempts, but closer than mid-range.

Player Efficiency Rating. A per-minute rating of a player's overall statistical production. League average is 15.

Stats scaled to 100 team possessions. Removes the effect of pace, so fast and slow teams (or eras) can be compared fairly.

Stats scaled to 36 minutes of playing time. Lets you compare bench players and starters on equal footing by removing minutes differences.

Where a value ranks against a comparison pool, from 0 to 100. A 75th percentile mark means the player beat 75% of qualifying players on that metric.

Personal fouls per game.

A post-regular-season mini tournament among seeds 7–10 in each conference. Seeds 7 and 8 get two chances to claim a playoff spot; seeds 9 and 10 must win twice.

A contract clause that gives the player the right to opt out of the final year(s) of their deal and become a free agent.

Points scored inside the lane area (the "paint") — layups, dunks, post moves, and short shots near the basket.

Points scored directly following an opponent turnover.

One trip down the floor that ends with a shot attempt, free throws, or a turnover. The basic unit for rate stats like ORTG and DRTG.

Points per game. Average points scored per game.

Expected to play — roughly a 75% or better chance of suiting up.

Points scored per game.

An expected win percentage based on points scored vs. points allowed. More predictive of future performance than actual wins.

A one-year contract offer a team extends to make an outgoing player a restricted free agent, giving the team the right to match outside offers.

Uncertain to play — roughly a 50/50 chance. Status is usually resolved closer to tip-off.

Total rebounds per game — offensive and defensive combined.

The semicircle within 4 feet of the basket. The highest-value shot zone on the floor — mostly layups and dunks.

A free agent whose current team can match any offer sheet they sign with another team, retaining the player at that price.

The standardized four-year contract for first-round picks — two guaranteed years plus two team option years, with salary set by draft position.

The maximum total salary a team can pay its players in a season. Teams that exceed the cap must use specific exceptions to sign players.

Screens that directly free a teammate for a made basket. Credits big men whose picks create offense without appearing in the box score.

Points scored on offensive rebounds — a second shot attempt after a missed field goal.

A team's playoff ranking within its conference (1–8), determined by regular season record. Higher seeds get home-court advantage.

The percentage of a player's made field goals that were unassisted. High self-creation means a player generates their own offense off the dribble rather than finishing plays created by teammates.

A court map plotting where a player or team attempted shots, colored by makes/misses or efficiency by zone.

Strength of Schedule. A measure of how difficult a team's opponents have been.

Steals per game. Times a defender takes the ball from an offensive player.

Steal Percentage. Percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by that player while on the floor.

A designated player extension worth up to 35% of the salary cap. Can only be offered by a player's current team to players who meet specific award criteria.

A contract clause that gives the team the right to keep or release a player at a predetermined salary for the option year.

Turnovers per game. Times possession is lost without a shot attempt.

Turnover Percentage. Turnovers committed per 100 plays.

A credit created when a team trades away more salary than it takes back, usable within a year to absorb a contract without matching salaries.

Reaching double digits (10+) in three statistical categories in a single game — usually points, rebounds, and assists.

True Shooting Percentage. A shooting efficiency measure that accounts for two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws. More accurate than FG% alone.

A special contract allowing a player to split time between an NBA team and its G League affiliate. Carries a lower salary and limited NBA game eligibility.

A free agent who can sign with any team with no right of first refusal for their previous club.

Usage Rate. The percentage of team possessions a player uses while on the floor via field goal attempts, free throw attempts, or turnovers.

Value Over Replacement Player. Total value a player contributes above what a replacement-level player would provide over the season.

The model's estimated chance that a team wins a given game, expressed as a percentage. Based on team strength, form, rest, injuries, and matchup history.

Win Shares. An estimate of the number of wins a player produces for their team through offense and defense.

Win Shares per 48 minutes. Normalizes Win Shares by playing time. League average is around .100.